Futility of major hepatectomies after hypertrophy techniques: predictive factors from a bi-institutional cohort study

Background: hypertrophy techniques expanded surgical indications, but some patients still experience limited clinical benefit. We aimed to identify futility predictive factors in major hepatectomies after liver venous deprivation (LVD) or ALPPS-variants (tourniquet-ALPPS or hybrid-ALPPS). Methods: a bi-institutional cohort study conducted between 01/2015 and 07/2024 including major hepatectomies for oncologic disease following one of the three augmentation strategies. Exclusion criteria: age <18, benign pathology, follow-up < 6-months, and interstage dropout. Futility corresponded to 90-days mortality or very early recurrence (≤6 months). Predictors of futile outcomes were identified by uni- and multi-variate analyses and utilized to build a futility score (0–10). Results: 84 patients completed the surgical process (dropout rate: 21.1 %): 40.5 % underwent LVD, 33.3 % tourniquet-ALPPS, and 26.2 % hybrid-ALPPS. Futility was observed in 35 patients (41.7 %) and logistic regression identified baseline sFLR (OR 0.89, p = 0.013), associated procedures (OR 3.07, p = 0.046), right trisectionectomy (OR 5.61, p = 0.031), and non-radical resection (OR 4.31, p = 0.01) as independent predictors. A futility score ≥4 (n = 36) predicted a futile outcome with good discrimination (AUC 0.802; p < 0.001). Conclusion: Technical success after hypertrophy techniques not always equates clinical benefit. Recognizing predictors of futility may improve patient selection and guide more personalized therapeutic strategies.