Observed versus predicted mortality after isolated tricuspid valve surgery

Background Aim of this study is to analyse the performances of Clinical Risk Score (CRS) and European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE)-II in isolated tricuspid surgery. Methods Three hundred and eighty-three patients (54 +/- 16 year; 54% female) were enrolled. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to evaluate the relationship between the true positive fraction of test results and the false-positive fraction for a procedure. Results Considering the 30-day mortality the area under the curve was 0.6 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.50-0.72) for EuroSCORE II and 0.7 (95% CI 0.56-0.84) for CRS-score. The ratio of expected/observed mortality showed underestimation when considering EuroSCORE-II (min. 0.46-max. 0.6). At multivariate analysis, the CRS score (p = .005) was predictor of late cardiac death. Conclusion We suggest using both scores to obtain a range of expected mortality. CRS to speculate on late survival.