Predictors of disease recurrence after curative surgery for nonfunctioning pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms (NF-PanNENs): a systematic review and meta-analysis

Purpose Patients submitted to curative surgery for non-functioning pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms (NF-PanNENs) exhibit a variable risk of disease relapse. Aims of this meta-analysis were to estimate the rate of disease recurrence and to investigate the risk factors for disease relapse in patients submitted to curative surgery for NF-PanNENs. Methods Medline/Pubmed and Web of Science databases were searched for relevant studies. A meta-regression analysis was performed to investigate the source of recurrence rate heterogeneity. Pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were used to assess the effect of each possible prognostic factor on disease-free survival. Results Fifteen studies, involving 2754 patients submitted to curative surgery for NF-PanNENs, were included. The pooled rate of disease recurrence was 21% (95% CI 15-26%). Study quality (Odds ratio, OR 0.94, P = 0.016) and G3-PanNENs rate (OR 2.18, P = 0.040) independently predicted the recurrence rate variability. Nodal metastases (HR 1.63, P < 0.001), tumor grade G2-G3 (G1 versus G2: HR 1.72, P < 0.001, G1 versus G3 HR 2.57, P < 0.001), microvascular (HR 1.25, P = 0.046) and perineural (HR 1.29, P = 0.019) invasion were identified as significant prognostic factors. T stage (T1-T2 versus T3-T4, P = 0.253) and status of resection margins (R0 versus R1, P = 0.173) did not show any significant relationship with NF-PanNENs recurrence. Conclusion Disease relapse occurs in approximately one out of five patients submitted to curative surgery for NF-PanNENs. Nodal involvement, tumor grade, microvascular and perineural invasion are relevant prognostic factors, that should be taken into account for follow-up and for possible trials investigating adjuvant or neoadjuvant treatments.