Predicting the risk of neurocognitive decline after brain irradiation in adult patients with a primary brain tumor

Background: Deterioration of neurocognitive function in adult patients with a primary brain tumor is the most concerning side effect of radiotherapy. This study aimed to develop and evaluate normal-tissue complication probability (NTCP) models using clinical and dose-volume measures for 6-month, 1-year, and 2-year Neurocognitive Decline (ND) postradiotherapy. Methods: A total of 219 patients with a primary brain tumor treated with radical photon and/or proton radiotherapy (RT) between 2019 and 2022 were included. Controlled oral word association test, Hopkins verbal learning test-revised, and trail making test were used to objectively measure ND. A comprehensive set of potential clinical and dose-volume measures on several brain structures were considered for statistical modeling. Clinical, dose-volume and combined models were constructed and internally tested in terms of discrimination (area under the curve, AUC), calibration (mean absolute error, MAE), and net benefit. Results: Fifty percent, 44.5%, and 42.7% of the patients developed ND at 6-month, 1-year, and 2-year time points, respectively. The following predictors were included in the combined model for 6-month ND: age at radiotherapy > 56 years (OR = 5.71), overweight (OR = 0.49), obesity (OR = 0.35), chemotherapy (OR = 2.23), brain V20Gy ≥ 20% (OR = 3.53), brainstem volume ≥ 26 cc (OR = 0.39), and hypothalamus volume ≥ 0.5 cc (OR = 0.4). Decision curve analysis showed that the combined models had the highest net benefits at 6-month (AUC = 0.79, MAE = 0.021), 1-year (AUC = 0.72, MAE = 0.027), and 2-year (AUC = 0.69, MAE = 0.038) time points. Conclusions: The proposed NTCP models use easy-to-obtain predictors to identify patients at high risk of ND after brain RT. These models can potentially provide a base for RT-related decisions and post-therapy neurocognitive rehabilitation interventions.