Natural history of diabetic macular edema and factors predicting outcomes in sham-treated patients (MEAD study)

Purpose: To describe the natural history of diabetic macular edema (DME) with respect to best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) and central retinal thickness (CRT) outcomes and to identify baseline patient characteristics and systemic factors associated with improvement or worsening of outcomes in sham-treated patients. Methods: The study population was sham-treated patients (n = 350) in the 3-year MEAD registration study of dexamethasone intravitreal implant for treatment of DME. Patients had center-involved DME and received sham intravitreal injections in the study eye at ≥ 6-month intervals. Potential prognostic factors for outcomes were evaluated using multiple linear regression analysis. Results: Visual and anatomic outcomes were poorer in patients who left the study early (n = 198) than in study completers (n = 152). Mean change in BCVA from baseline at the last visit with available data was + 0.9 letters; 37.5% of patients had no change in BCVA, 23.2% had gained > 10 letters, and 16.0% had lost > 10 letters. Older age and baseline diabetic retinopathy score > 6 were associated with worse BCVA outcomes; thicker baseline CRT and larger number of hypertension medications used were associated with larger reductions in CRT during the study. Conclusions: BCVA and CRT outcomes were variable in this population of DME patients with generally good glycemic control. In DME patients without active treatment, older age and baseline diabetic retinopathy score > 6 were associated with less improvement in BCVA; thicker baseline CRT and a larger number of antihypertensive medications used predicted better improvement in CRT. Trial registration: The MEAD study trials are registered at ClinicalTrials.gov with the identifiers NCT00168337 and NCT00168389.